Comments on DALG

Whew. Sorry for the long post on the description of DExR and DALG but a full description really was necessary. Anyway, I am planning on creating and uploading more statistics like these and I am going to try to keep a similar pattern of a boring long post describing the metric and then a fun post where I see what we can learn from it. If you are just arriving give the previous post a short skim and then come back.

First, looking at the 2006 data the first thing that jumps out at me is how well the teams with a high DALG preformed. Six of the top seven made the playoffs and only the Dodgers qualified for postseason play with a below average defense. This easily could just be coincidence but the Tigers incredibly strong defense certainly didn't get the media attention it probably deserved.

Looking at the 2007 data DALG appears to correlate less with success but there still is some correlation. Big movers on the list are the Cubs who went from -36.5 in 2006 to 49.9 as of this writing. Again, it appears their much improved defense isn't getting the credit it probably deserves for their large jump in the standing. On the flip side the Cardinals have gone from one of the best defensive teams in 2006 to one of the worst in 2007. How Tony LaRussa is keeping them even remotely close even in that easy division is beyond me.

The really big story though is the Devil Rays. They currently are 128 runs below league average, which is feet and ankles below the rest. I don't have DALG data for years before 2006 (I am working on it) but I have a feeling this could be a historic year for them. Honestly, when that number popped out at me I thought there was something wrong with my code. I combed through and took a careful look at their games and they really are that bad. This actually is in agreement with the other defensive statistics out there. Hardball times has them as the lowest team in RZR by some margin and BaseballProspectus has them as the lowest team in DEF by far. BP has DEF numbers for many years back and I tried to go back to find a team with a lower DEF but I gave up after going back ten years.

Another interesting thing is they have actually played pretty respectfully at home. Their home/road splits are -18/-110 which is truly amazing. I wonder if this has anything to do with the Fieldturf they have installed at the Trop. If there is interest I might generate home/road splits for every team. That might show how much effect park factors have on these numbers. Playing half your games in a park with a large foul territory or tall infield grass certainly could be affecting these numbers.

The other thing to note is pitcher movement from 2006 to 2007. Jeff Suppan went from a great defense in St. Louis to a below average one in Milwaukee (though this year's Cardinal team would have been even worse). Suppan's ERA is up more than half a run which corresponds nicely with the change in DALG from the two teams. Oliver Perez looks like a new pitcher this year for the Mets but some of that is because he moved from a team playing terrible defense behind him in Pittsburgh to the best defense in the league with the Mets.

And then there is the much maligned Yankee defense. DALG grades them out as solidly above average and better than last year's version. So why have they really given up all those runs? The pitching has actually be worse than advertised and that is saying something. With their juggernaut of an offense and a very capable defense if they can get any pitching at all down the stretch they are going to be serious players for the wild card.