The 2007 Washington Nationals

The Nations were supposed to be just a terrible team this year. Pundits were predicting 100 losses for sure. Some suggested they might lose 110 and have a shot at losing 120. Yet here we are on August 15 and the Nationals are 54-65 after losing a heart breaker to the Phillies last night. The Royals, Rangers, Reds, Giants, Pirates and Devil Rays all have worse records. They have the same record as the Astros, who some thought had a chance to contend in the weak NL central, and they are a mere two games behind the Marlins and threaten to get out of the cellar in the NL East.

What's going on here? How are the Nationals doing it? Well they are dead last in the NL in runs so that isn't it. They are a surprising 8th in the league in runs allowed. Their park is certainly helping these numbers but many thought this might be the worst starting rotation in the last 20 years so the pitching has been better than advertised. Both the starters and the bullpen have been the 8th best at preventing runs so far.

So the Nationals have scored 465 runs and allowed 556 runs. Their Pythagorean record says they should be 49-70 which would put them on pace for a 95 loss season. David Gassko wrote an excellent column on why teams outperform (of underperform) their Pythagorean record. He found that balanced teams, who don't rely on the long ball, with a strong bullpen, and a seasoned manager tend to outperform their Pythagorean record.

Well the Nats have a somewhat balanced offense though it is pretty terrible. They don't hit too many home runs. They have a first time manager and an ok bullpen. Doesn't seem like a team who should be almost five games ahead of their estimated record to me. Either The Nats are getting a bit lucky or Manny Acta is one hell of a manager. I'm not ready to throw out the second option yet but my guess would be that some luck has played a part in the Nats success so far.


But hold on. Even if they were playing at their Pythagorean record that would still only put them on pace for a 95 loss season. This is still much better than some people predicted. What are the Nationals doing right? Well we know it isn't on the offensive end and the pitching staff is supposed to be junk so what about the fielding? Well we could look at their fielding percentage and see they are 10th in the NL. We could dig a bit more and see they are preforming a bit better for their team zone rating. They even look respectable from a defensive efficiency standpoint. But if we look at their DALG they look downright awesome (if you are new to the blog and want to learn more about DALG you check out this post).

DALG puts them second in all of baseball at preventing runs. Only the Mets are better and the Nationals are creeping up on them in the past few weeks. So why does DALG like the Nats so much? Well first their catchers have done a great job behind the plate. As a team they are second in the NL in throwing out potential base stealers. Brian Schneider, with a little help from Jesus Flores, have thrown out 34% of base stealers, just a tick under the Cardinals 35%. This doesn't show up in any of the other defensive metrics but plays a sizable role in DALG. Also, their outfield has done a great job at getting to balls (their outfield RZR is tied for second in the league again behind those pesky Mets). Getting to balls in the outfield is more important than getting to balls in the infield because flyballs are much more likely to go for extra bases. DALG , unlike the other metrics, gives bonus points for tracking down a potential double in the gap. Speaking of extra bases. Teams have done a very poor job of taking extra bases against the Nationals outfield. So Ryan Church, Ryan Langerhans, Austin Kearns, Nook Logan, and Robert Fick take a bow.

Not only have the Nationals played so well on defense this year they have had a remarkable turnaround from last year when they were in the bottom third of the league in DALG. The difference is almost 90 runs so far. Add in those 90 runs to the 2007 Nationals and you have a team with a Pythagorean record of 55 and 107 projected over the whole season. Even their luck, or really good managing, would probably not save them from being a hundred loss team like many predicted.

So thank your defense next time you go out to start National pitchers, because they are the ones who are keeping your head almost above water.